Policy Essays

Housing: Back to 1.7 Years

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Free Market Solutions to the Housing Crisis


Target KPI: LYI-Home = 1.7 years of median labor to buy a median home.

This isn't central planning. It's removing the artificial scarcities that prop up land rents.

Stack-Ranked Reforms

1. State Preemption YIMBY Package

  • Legalize 4-8 units by-right on all residential lots
  • Mid-rise (5-8 stories) by-right on transit/arterials
  • Abolish parking minimums
  • ADUs by-right statewide

This smashes the zoning cartel. Supply is the only way to nuke land rents.

2. Land Value Tax + Idle Land Surcharges

Shift property tax off improvements, onto land value. Add vacancy/hoarding surcharges. This kills sit-and-wait speculation and forces highest/best use.

3. Permitting Shot-Clocks

One-stop digital permits, 60-90 day statutory deadline. Adopt standardized statewide code. Legalize factory-built/modular at scale.

4. Infrastructure Unlock with Value-Capture

Pre-entitle and service "growth belts" (utilities, transit, schools). Fund via land value capture/TIF. Makes added density actually buildable.

5. Mortgage/Credit Neutrality

Phase out mortgage-interest deduction. Tighten GSE conforming caps in supply-starved zips. Deflate demand without killing supply incentives.

6. Guardrails on Megascale Aggregation

Transaction transparency. Surtax on bulk SFH acquisition by mega-funds in tight metros. Level tax treatment vs small owners/builders.

Why This Is Still Free Market

We're removing artificial scarcities (zoning, permitting friction), taxing land rents (not production), and neutralizing subsidies that inflate demand. The state's job is to open markets and price externalities - then get out of the way.

KPIs (Quarterly Dashboard)

  • LYI-Home: median years of labor to buy median home (target ≤3.0 in 5-7 years)
  • Permits per 1k residents (≥20)
  • Median approval time (≤60 days)
  • Land share of home price (↓ 20%)
  • Investor megafund share of SFH purchases (↓ to <10%)