I spent my morning modeling the high-level costs and changes that we will nee...

I spent my morning modeling the high-level costs and changes that we will need to adopt over the next 15-20 years - if we want to make the goal of 1.5C by 2050 a 50% chance.

It is a google spreadsheet, feel free to make your own copy and make your own assumptions or change the model however you like.

There is an assumptions tab

There is a tab with the 23 references I used to source the numbers

Findings:

We need to pay to re-build all the world's buildings over the next 30 years

We need to convert the world's fleet of cars, trucks, buses, scooters, boats and motorcycles to electric in 20 years

We need to have a fossil fuel carbon tax high enough to get to net zero CO emissions by 2050 and then use this tax money to pay for switching costs - the carbon tax cannot be used to py to sink carbon

We need to pay to sink carbon equal to the rate we miss zero emissions until 2050 to maintain max 425 ppm

We need an additional climate repair tax equal to about 18% of all world-wide government revenues to pay for the infrastructure changes, and maintenance carbon sinking.

After 2050, we need to start net sinking CO2 so that in 100 years we return to 250ppm. If we do not, all ice continues to melt and we have 300 feet of sea level rise and the war to end all civilization. (400 ppm is more than enough to melt all ice and we are at 405ppm now.)

From 2050 we need to raise the global climate repair tax to 30% of all government revenues.

I am curious what you guys think.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1D76Y7SKEeXSRCwpJZTzeIZJzPEUYb6IXdxeuDztellU/edit?usp=sharing

Originally posted on Facebook on October 10, 2018.