‘When we pit experts against minimalist performance benchmarks – dilettantes,...

‘When we pit experts against minimalist performance benchmarks – dilettantes, dart-throwing chimps, and assorted extrapolation algorithms – we find few signs that expertise translates into greater ability to make either “well-calibrated” or “discriminating” forecasts.’ Experts, it seemed, were no better at predicting the future than spinning a roulette wheel. Tetlock’s initial findings confirmed for many laypeople a suspicion that experts don’t really know what they’re doing.

Originally posted on Facebook on June 10, 2017.