Why the Super Delegates might vote for Bernie?

Why the Super Delegates might vote for Bernie?

This is an optimistic post from a happy Bernie supporter. Once again, this is optimistic.

Background:

There are 4,233 total delegates in the 2016 Democratic Nominee Contest.

To win the Democratic Nomination the candidate must win a simple majority of the 4,233 delegates or simply 2,117 delegates.

Of the 4233 delegates, 823.5 are non-democratic from “super-delegates” and 3,410 are chosen via some sort of democratic process of either primaries or caucuses.

1321 delegates have already been chosen from the democratic process

770 Clinton

551 Sanders

With Hillary ~219 delegates ahead.

Now for the most part the super delegates have pledged for HRC. Another 700+ for HRC.

Under the current math logic, Bernie needs to overcome his 219 delegate deficit, *and* he has to overcome the ~700+ super delegates that she has. So that is why conventional logic says she has already won.

One Way Bernie Could Win:

But is the only narrative path? Is there a way Bernie still could win?

First, most of the Red States that HRC is strong in are already done, and so we have left purple and blue states. Bernie will win the Blue and split the Purple. Let’s say of the remaining ~2100 delegates that Bernie wins a small margin of delegates say 53% to 47%. We would then gain a net 125 relative delegates through the rest of these states, and then reduce HRC’s lead from +219 to +100 going into the convention.

But she still crushes Bernie with the extra 700+ delegates right?

I think it is much more complex than that.

The super delegates coming from Blue states would have to vote *opposite* of the will of their own voters in their states. The red state super delegates are in-line with their voters, so sure, they vote HRC. But the blue state superdelegates risk voting against their citizens. That would risk them realizing that democracy is broken and so they stay home on the general election. With depressed turnout in the blue states, I think HRC would still beat Trump or Cruz. But these superdelegates would be vulnerable to losing their seats. Thus, HRC might be asking to vote against their own interests.

So, say I am right and the blue state superdelegates go Bernie, the red state go HRC, then it would be decided by purple state superdelegates.

If Bernie outperforms in the following contests even a little like Michigan, then it would be far easier for the super delegates to switch ranks. And if Bernie does strong enough to make up that 100 delegate gap, and he goes into the convention with actually a majority of delegates, then those 700+ superdelegates would be under incredible historical pressure to go with Sanders.

Originally posted on Facebook on March 09, 2016.