I have been talking about the inevitable Blue Texas since 2012 when I moved to Austin

I have been talking about the inevitable Blue Texas since 2012 when I moved to Austin.

Of course older angry white males with their guns will scoff and make angry violent noises. And maybe even some of them will occupy a federal bird sanctuary for a while.

But with the arch rejection of every other group of people besides angry white Christians, the GOP is doomed.

The funny thing, for the various characters that make a living feeding the fear porn of the GOP partisans this is a *Good Thing* e.g. Glenn Beck, Alex Jones, ad naseum will all make a ton more money off of the angry white GOP partisans for another 20 years.

What the mystery to me is, why does the Democratic party have to shift to center? I get there is a power vacuum in the center, but I do not see why the Democratic party cannot simply go Left and pick up the center anyways. It is not as if you are a minority entrepreneur you would vote for xenophobic racists anyways. Same with the center woman vote, or anyone with college degree, and so on.

Why not go strong on climate change, reigning in the militarization of the police, end the war on drugs and have some gun regulation?

Why is the priority the TPP?

Is it because we have not addressed the fundamentals of a broken economic system that results in run away income inequality and lower and lower disposable cash for any family below the top 2%. I think it is. I think we are so attached and addicted to our current flows of wealth creation and distribution that we will do anything to keep the music playing even for a year or two more.

After the next correction, we will not be able to print easy money and get away with it. The next one will use much more aggressive tactics like 3-5% negative interest rates. But the catch here, is the majority of the world's great wealth is un-taxable e.g. Apple declaring that they have no concerns about taxes openly ahead of the election. So even with negative interest rates the burden will be pushed further on the upper middle / lower upper class to sustain the 0.1%.

But we are already at the point that young Americans know deep down that they will have to work a lot harder and a lot smarter to get much less than their parents when it comes financial well-being. Young people are starting to give up on houses & cars, they are changing what they even desire - more experiences, travel, gardens etc. Which is actually *great* for the long-term to get away from pure consumerism. But it does nothing but cause even more financial stress on the system with less dollar velocity.

So the next crash will be harder than 2008 to recover from, and with social media, the common folks around the world will know more and more how much bullshit they have been fed from the American led 20th economic model.

But this time, the GOP will be wiped out and it will just be Democrats. But what flavor? Without the fear of a GOP demon like a Trump, post-crash I predict we will see America's strongest socialist ever (left of FDR). Yet at the same time America is nominally the home of the biggest tax evaders on the planet. I do not see how that will work out. I doubt Apple (et al) will ever pay.

Once the basic idea that the 0.1% are tax-free is out and about in the minds of the people as a basic understanding, the possible futures are very chaotic. Will the people accept it meekly? If so, less and less consumption and you have deflation like many of the world's countries. Or you have some sort of aggressive form of attack on large wealth that ignores the tax haven structures (even if Apple has its profits "offshore" you know they park the bulk of their cash via US based banks, stocks and bonds).

Ultimately, big (successful) businesses should welcome proper taxation across the corporate sector as then the strongest will gain marketshare and profits from the increased ability of people to spend. But there is no rational reason why a single company should stick its neck out and voluntarily pay any tax it does not have to. In that sense I do not blame Apple et al for their behavior. But I do blame the electorate for continuing to re-elect a terrible congress generation after generation.

But I do believe that will stop once Texas falls blue. Then we will get much more rational and accountable congress elections.

There is going to be a lot of pain, but we have pushed off the correction for a long while, and HRC is easily the best candidate in terms of resources to push it off as long as possible. But can she do 8 more years of spinning the plates? I do not think it is possible. There might be a back-door last dead cat bounce for the GOP on the back of the next correction. But even still I think that is more fantasy as they have squandered the one demographic that they couldn't afford to lose - Hispanics.

Come 2024 the USA is going to be a lot more like France & Scandinavia in terms of the national policies being openly discussed. By 2030 it is going to be radically different. For those with wealth it is probably a good hedge to buy arable land (heck any land) in far off and different places as it would be hard for an American electorate to confiscate your 500,000 acres of farmland in Nambia where there is a greater influence from China.

The timing of all of this depends on Texas. Really it does, as the largest bloc of votes (and cash) for the GOP once it falls, the GOP falls, and the USA can finally get on with being progressive again.

Originally posted on Facebook on August 17, 2016.