‘When we pit experts against minimalist performance benchmarks – dilettantes, dart-throwing chimps, and assorted extrapolation algorithms – we find few signs th...
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‘When we pit experts against minimalist performance benchmarks – dilettantes, dart-throwing chimps, and assorted extrapolation algorithms – we find few signs that expertise translates into greater ability to make either “well-calibrated” or “discriminating” forecasts.’ Experts, it seemed, were no better at predicting the future than spinning a roulette wheel. Tetlock’s initial findings confirmed for many laypeople a suspicion that experts don’t really know what they’re doing.
Originally posted on Facebook on June 10, 2017.
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Published: June 10, 2017 9:39 PM
Last updated: March 6, 2026 10:14 PM
Post ID: b21320e1-5eb4-4573-90c2-913b69765581